Unit : Topic:

Alternative World Futures Prospects for a New World Order

Michael P. Infranco, Ph.D. Political Science 103 International Politics

Which view of the future do you foresee? Why?

Kants Perpetual Peace_: The Establishment of a league of states working collectively for the common good. For example, the five Iroquois nationsthe Mohawks, Oneidas, Onondagas, Cayugas, and Senecas formed a Great League of Peace.
Enviormental calamity_: The actions of states lead to environmental destruction. For example, the Easter Islanders chopped down all of the palm trees on the island, which resulted in ecological disaster, and ultimately, a legacy of malnutrition and fratricidal conflict.

Global Military Conflict_: Catastrophic war between regional blocs in competition for resources and territory. As an illustration, the great power conflicts during the Age of Imperialism.

Future of Humanity

Thinking about the Future

Scenario: A narrative description showing how some hypotheticial future state of affiars _might evolve out of the present one.

Probabilistic Forecasts: Social scientists make predictions about the future. They select the scenario that is most probable.

When thinking about future scenarios, think about these questions: 1) imagine what conceivable global futures_are possible; 2) select which ones are most probable; 3) consider the adoption of policies that would bring about the favorable outcome.

Is economic globalization irreversible? Why or why not?

As the global economy grows, there will Be less and less distinctions between what is domestic and what is foreign (e.g., HarleyDavidson assembly plants in India). In theory, conflict between states should recede as linkages increase. Others suggest that globalization will breed enmity and increasing conflict in trade, because economic growth will be unevenly distributed. Also, the center of gravity of the world economy is shifting from the North Atlantic to Asia.

Complex Interdependence

Globalization refers to the increasing interconnectedness among societies.

Realist Economic Competition

The End of History Versus the Clash of Civilizations: Which is the more likely scenario? Why?
The end of History: The thesis that the demise of Francis Fukuyama (1989) argued that the world was witnessing the end of history. communism marked the triumph of Western free- Ideological conflicts were over, because liberal, free-market democracy was victorious. market democracy and the end of humanitys ideological evolution. Clash of Civilizations: The thesis that future international conflicts will be based on competing cultural values. Samuel Huntingtons proposition (1993) that future conflicts will occur at the fault lines between societies (that hold diverging views about politics, religion and culture). According to this thesis, the world is divided several major civilizations: Western, Slavic-Orthodox, Islamic, Hindu, Confucian, Japanese, Latin American and African.

Human Choice and the Global Future

American statesman William Jennings Bryan once observed, Destiny is no matter of chance. It is a matter of choice.

Do you believe that the international community will be able to limit economic, ideological and military conflict between states, or is confrontation inevitable? Why?

Is it possible to achieve economic and environmental reconciliation between the Global North and South? Why or why not?

What type of future do you want for your country and the community of nations?