What is the effect of the 2012 Projected Weather Pattern on the island of Mindanao?

Vicente B. Malano , Ph.D.

Acting DA for Operations and Services PAGASA

Weather and Climate Defined

Thunderstorms Tail-end of Cold front Low Pressure Area Tropical Cyclones Easterly Wave Monsoons

Weather Systems to affect the country during February to March

1. Northeast Monsoon. 2. Tail end of cold front. 3. Low Pressure Area (LPA). 4. Ridge of High Pressure Area (HPA).

Weather Systems to affect the country during April to June

1. Tail end of cold front. 2. Inter-tropical Convergence Zone. 3. Southwest Monsoon. 4. Easterly wave. 5. Ridge of High Pressure Area (HPA). 6. Two(2) to four(4) tropical cyclones.

Comparison of Rainfall during ENSO and Normal Years in Butuan

400.0 NORMAL (1981-2010) 350.0 NEUTRAL 300.0 EL NIO 250.0 LA NIA 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Comparison of Rainfall during ENSO and Normal Years in Lumbia

350.0 NORMAL (1981-2010) 300.0 NEUTRAL 250.0 EL NIO 200.0 LA NIA 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Comparison of Rainfall during ENSO and Normal Years in Dipolog

450.0 NORMAL (1981-2010) 400.0 NEUTRAL 350.0 EL NIO 300.0 LA NIA 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Comparison of Rainfall during ENSO and Normal Years in Malaybalay

400.0 NORMAL (1981-2010) 350.0 NEUTRAL 300.0 EL NIO 250.0 LA NIA 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Comparison of Rainfall during ENSO and Normal Years in Hinatuan

1000.0 900.0 800.0 700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0 0.0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC NORMAL (1981-2010) NEUTRAL EL NIO LA NIA

Comparison of Rainfall during ENSO and Normal Years in Davao

250.0 NORMAL (1981-2010) 200.0 NEUTRAL EL NIO LA NIA 150.0

100.0

50.0

0.0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Comparison of Rainfall during ENSO and Normal Years in Zamboanga

250.0 NORMAL (1981-2010) 200.0 NEUTRAL EL NIO LA NIA 150.0

100.0

50.0

0.0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Comparison of Rainfall during ENSO and Normal Years in General Santos

160.0 NORMAL (1981-2010) 140.0 NEUTRAL 120.0 EL NIO 100.0 LA NIA 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Percent of Normal Interpretation for Monthly Rainfall

PERCENTAGE < 40% 41% - 80% 81% - 120% > 120 % RAINFALL CONDITION
way below normal below normal
Within normal near normal

above normal

Actual Rainfall

Percent of Normal =

Normal Rainfall

x 100%

Rainfall during this Month (Feb 2012)

Actual Rainfall for February 2012

Normal (mm) (1971-2000) February 1-13, 2012 Actual (mm) % Normal

Projected Rainfall
(March July 2012)

Monthly Rainfall Forecast

Normal (mm) (1971-2000) March 2012 Forecast (mm) % Normal

Monthly Rainfall Forecast ENSEMBLE

Monthly Rainfall Forecast

Normal (mm) (1971-2000) April 2012 Forecast (mm) % Normal

Monthly Rainfall Forecast ENSEMBLE

Monthly Rainfall Forecast

Normal (mm) (1971-2000) May 2012 Forecast (mm) % Normal

Monthly Rainfall Forecast ENSEMBLE

Monthly Rainfall Forecast

Normal (mm) (1971-2000) June 2012 Forecast (mm) % Normal

Monthly Rainfall Forecast ENSEMBLE

Monthly Rainfall Forecast

Normal (mm) (1971-2000) July 2012 Forecast (mm) % Normal

Forecast Rainfall Analysis in Mindanao Area in millimeters (February June 2012)

Forecast Rainfall Analysis in Mindanao Area in Percent Normal (February June 2012)

Historical El Nio and La Nia Episodes

Based on the ONI computed using ERSST.v3b
Highest Lowest

El Nio
NOTE: After updating the ocean analysis to ERSST.v3b, a new La Nia episode was classified (ASO 1962DJF 1962/63) and two previous La Nia episodes were combined into one single episode (AMJ 1973- MAM 1976).
JAS 1951 - NDJ 1951/52 MAM 1957 MJJ 1958 JJA 1963 DJF 1963/64 MJJ 1965 MAM 1966 OND 1968 MJJ 1969 ASO 1969 DJF 1969/70 AMJ 1972 FMA 1973 ASO 1976 JFM 1977 ASO 1977 - DJF 1977/78 AMJ 1982 MJJ 1983 JAS 1986 JFM 1988 AMJ 1991 JJA 1992 AMJ 1994 FMA 1995 AMJ 1997 AMJ 1998 AMJ 2002 FMA 2003 MJJ 2004 JFM 2005 JAS 2006 - DJF 2006/07 MJJ 2009 MAM 2010

ONI Value
0.8 1.7 1.0 1.6 1.0 0.8 2.1 0.8 0.8 2.3 1.6 1.8 1.3 2.5 1.5 0.9 1.1 1.8

La Nina
ASO 1949 FMA 1951 MAM 1954 DJF 1956/57 ASO 1962 DJF 1962/63 MAM 1964 DJF 1964/65 NDJ 1967/68 MAM 1968 JJA 1970 DJF 1971/72 AMJ 1973 MAM 1976 SON 1984 ASO 1985 AMJ 1988 AMJ 1989 ASO 1995 FMA 1996 JJA 1998 MJJ 2000 SON 2000 JFM 2001 ASO 2007 AMJ 2008 JJA 2010 MAM 2011

ONI Value
-1.7 -2.1 -0.8 -1.1 -0.9 -1.3 -2.0 -1.0 -1.9 -0.7 -1.6 -0.7 -1.4 -1.4

 Weather and Climate Effects/impacts

TS Sendong ranked No. 1 in the ten (10) most destructive TCs during 2011 with the most number of casualties totalling to 1,257 (as per NDRRMC report). Cagayan de Oro and Iligan suffered the most.

February 2006
Floods in Surigao provinces, Agusan provinces, Southern Samar and Leyte Island

Aurora

2010-2011 La Nia Impacts

From Philippine Star ( December 2010 Albay Flooding)

Compostela Valley Flooding (Jan 3,2011)

Mindanao Flood (January 5, 2011)

Mindanao Flood (January 7, 2011)

T. STORM

FLASH FLOOD

THANK YOU !
PAGASA-DOST website: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/