Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Technology Forecasting
Technology Forecasting
Many types of forecasting models that differ in complexity and amount of data & way they generate forecasts: 1. Forecasts are rarely perfect 2. Forecasts are more accurate for grouped data than for individual items 3. Forecast are more accurate for shorter than longer time periods
Qualitative Methods
Type Executive opinion Characteristics Strengths Weaknesses A group of managers Good for strategic or One person's opinion meet & come up with new-product can dominate the a forecast forecasting forecast Uses surveys & Good determinant of It can be difficult to interviews to identify customer preferences develop a good customer preferences questionnaire Seeks to develop a Excellent for Time consuming to consensus among a forecasting long-term develop group of experts product demand, technological changes, and
Market research
Delphi method
Quantitative Methods
Time Series Models:
Assumes information needed to generate a forecast is contained in a time series of data Assumes the future will follow same patterns as the past
Technology Forecasting
Looking into the Future
Normative Approach
Descriptive Approach
Desiderable
Possible
Probable
Technology Forecasting
Looking into the Future
Normative Approach
Descriptive Approach
Desiderable
Possible
Probable
Forecasting of Technology
Technology Applying a systematic technique, method or approach to solve a problem1 Forecasting of Technology . . .
Forecasting of Applying, Forecasting of Systems, Forecasting of Techniques/Methods, Forecasting of Solve, Forecasting of Problems.
Note 1 a.The application of science, especially to industrial or commercial objectives. b.The scientific method and material used to achieve a commercial or industrial objective.
Forecasting of Technology
Technological System
Control
Transmission
Working Means
Motor
Control Unit
Transmission
machine
Work Piece
Tool
Motor
Microprocessor
Focus adjust
record
light
Lens Set
Methods
Delphi Analogy Methods Extrapolation
Variables to be predicted
Phenomena
Statistics
Causal Relations
TRIZ forecasting
consists these major phases:
1. 2. 3. 4. Analysis of the system's evolution: study of the history of the system and its position on its "life curve" (S-curve) "Road mapping: application of the Laws and Lines of Technological Systems Evolution to forecast functional and structural alterations in the system Problem formulation: formulation of engineering problems to be solved so as to achieve targets set at the previous phase Problem solving: solving the formulated problems by using powerful analytical and solution tools of TRIZ
Analogy
Extrapolation
Statistics
Causal Relations