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Pattern of Rice Variety Adoption and Potential Impact of Improved Variety in GSR Target Countries
Pattern of Rice Variety Adoption and Potential Impact of Improved Variety in GSR Target Countries
Pattern of Rice Variety Adoption and Potential Impact of Improved Variety in GSR Target Countries
GSR
What is GSR?
The improved lines are expected to be stress-tolerant and high yielding. It is anticipated that the efficiency of chemical inputs will be increased when these stress tolerant varieties become widely adopted (Zhang 2007).
IRRI: South Asia and Southeast Asia My study: Cambodia, Sri Lanka and Pakistan
Outline
Background Objective Methodology Key findings Study on specific issue Summary and implications
Methodology
Data:
Secondary data Focus group discussion (FGD) Household baseline survey
Analytical framework:
Secondary data and household level analysis Descriptive statistics and econometric analysis
KEY FINDINGS
Rough rice area, yield and production, GSR countries, Asia (2008-2010)
Area (million ha) SE Asia Cambodia S Asia Sri Lanka Pakistan 0.9 2.7 3.9 6.2 4.4 2.3 2.7 7.7 2.9 Production (million ton) Yield (t/ha)
S Asia Sri Lanka Pakistan Mostly irrigated Mostly irrigated Self-sufficient An important rice export country; High quality rice (Basmati etc.) High Low
2.00
1.50
Cambodia
1.00
0.50 0.00 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
S Asia
Sri Lanka Pakistan 15.2 22.3 15.7 27.0
83.2
2.7 29.1
Sample design
Sample Key size stresses
SE Asia Battambang, Pursat, Kampong Thom, Kampot, Prey Veng, Takeo
Surveyed districts
Institutions Collaborator
Cambodia
607
D/Sub/Sal
SME
S Asia Sri Lanka 404 D/Sub/Sal Kurunegala, Kalutara, Puttalam Sindh, Panjab RRDI, SEPDC UAF Nimal Dissanayake Abedullah Anjum
Pakistan
210
D/Sub/Sal
Country
SE Asia
Cambodia S Asia Sri Lanka 1.2 2.6 11 40 150 187 1.8 2.8 44 23
113
Pakistan
5.5
3.6
16
90
4.1 2.7
2.3 3.5 3.7 4.9 1.9 2.6 3.1 2.4
1990 1990
1971 1999 1987 1992 1999
Super Basmati
Sri Lanka BG300 BG352 BG358
10
62 13 7
932
821
700
600 500 400
329 535
505 464
Cambodia
Pakistan
Sri Lanka
% rice
% non rice % animal sale % off-farm income % nonfarm income
44
1 13 2 40
16
38 1
10
17 1 61 3,475
9
36 3,075 1.35
1,688
0.94
2.44
Gender analysis
Objective Gender roles play an important role on rice farming and households decision-making process. Gender roles and responses vary across and within cultures. Taking Cambodia and Sri Lanka as examples, the objective of this study is to compare the women farmers empowerment and gender roles in rice farming systems between subsistence- and market-oriented rice farmers.
Sri Lanka
Cambodia
% rice % non rice
10%
40% 17% 44%
11%
61%
1%
13%
2%
2%
100
100
80
49
80
54 Labor inputs (%) 79 60 77 75
73
Nonfarm income (%) 60
40
40
20 27 0 Sri Lanka
51
20 21 0 23
46 25
Cambodia
WS
DS
WS
DS Cambodia
Men
Women
Sri Lanka
Rice farming decisions 1. What rice variety(ies) to grow 2. Adoption of technology in rice production 3. What farm implements to purchase 4. Who and number of farm labor to hire 5. Whether to sell or consume the harvested crop 6. Quantity of output to sell and consume 7. When and where to sell the harvested crop 8. What price to sell the output Income and expenditure 9. Allocation of farm income 10. Allocation of household income 11. What types of food to consume in times of crisis 12. Where to borrow Childcare 13. Childrens education 14. Number of children to raise Others 15. Participation in voting/politics 16. Whether to sell or slaughter the animal Average WEI
2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.7 3.0 -2.5 -2.5
3.0 2.8 2.8 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 2.9 3.2
0.0373**
0.0112*** -0.123 0.00619**
0.0143
0.00746*** 0.0309 0.00273*
-0.00755
0.00318* 0.00105 -0.196* 0.435*** 1.088*** 378
-0.0542***
0.0000825 -0.00197*** -0.195*** 0.154*** 2.713*** 593
Assumptions:
the size of the potential yield gain: 10% the adoption rate: 10% and 20%
15
10
5 0
2.9
Cambodia
Sri Lanka
Pakistan
0.82
0.74
(million persons)
0.7
0.70
0.6
0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.37 0.41
0.35
0.1
0.0
Cambodia
Sri Lanka
Pakistan
The three countries analysed represent a diversity of rice production environments, technology levels and the institutional set up. Yield levels in all countries are low, especially in areas that are stress-prone. Efforts to develop improved rice varieties that are tolerant to such stresses are thus very important.
Implications
Germplasm development strategy
Grain quality characteristics: The new lines and /or varieties to be developed should go through the proper grain quality test and evaluation or whatever is needed to make sure these are the traits that farmers desired, especially the quality issues for hybrid rice. Mega varieties and Breeding strategy: The dominance of mega varieties basically indicates that breeding strategy may build on the existing materials and include some additional desirable traits to facilitate rapid dissemination. Grain quality could be such an additional consideration as farmers did rank grain quality as second most important trait after the yield.
Implications
Targeting
Poverty reduction: In terms of the potential impact on rural poverty, it would be desirable to consider environments with abiotic stress as the primary target of GSR varieties given the high incidence of poverty in such environments and the low current average yield.
Rice farmers: Farm-level impact of adoption of GSR varieties in terms of the incremental income is higher for those farmer categories (or locations) for whom rice accounts for a larger share of total household income. Hence, it is desirable to have a dissemination strategy (at least at the initial stages) that is targeted to such farmers/locations. Training: To provide training on women farmers would be helpful to improve women empowerment in the family decision.
Implications
Dissemination
Availability and access to quality seeds: In poor rainfed areas, limited access to quality seeds of improved varieties remains a problem due to a number of institutional constraints. Increased investments in extension and participation of local agencies and NGOs will be needed for accelerating the process of technology diffusion.
One-stage stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) regression (Battese and Coelli,1995) Cobb-Douglas production function
ln Y j j ln X ij V j U j
i 1 n
Variables
Production function Seeds Organic fertilizer Chemical fertilizer Pesticides Herbicides Power (Animal, tractor, thresher, harvester) Labor Inefficiency model Age Education Household size Farm size
Characteristics of farmers
Variables Age of respondent (years) Education of respondent (years) Household size (persons/hh) Farm size (ha/hh) Household income (US$/hh) Nonfarm income share (%) Share of rice income (%) Mean 53 8.5 3.8 1.3 3267 52 11 Std. Dev. 12 2.8 1.1 0.9 3328 38 26 Min 24 0 1 Max 88 13 8
0.23
123 0 0
4
17100 100 100
10
20
30
.2
.8
.2
.4 .6 Technical efficiency
.8
Constant
N
Standard errors in parentheses * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01
-1.148
120
(1.145)
Conclusion
The livelihood strategy of rice farmers in Sri Lanka is oriented more towards nonfarm income. There is substantial potential to improve farmers practices (TE=63%). The effect of nonfarm income is kind of U-shape effect.
Adoption is measured using two indicators: incidence of adoption and intensity of adoption. For analyzing the incidence of adoption, a farmer is considered to be either an adopter or a non-adopter Probit model The extent/ intensity of adoption is measured as the proportion of area under improved varieties Tobit Model
Modelling
The decision problem for a farmer involves the choice of two possible varietal categories, namely, modern varieties (MV) and traditional varieties (TV and iTV). Variations could be influenced by demographic characteristics, landholdings, access to market and variety, cropping pattern and location
Description of covariates
Description of variables Dependent variable Adopt Farmer grew modern varieties. 0= no, 1=yes PMVarea Share of modern variety area in total rice area (%) Explanatory variables Age Age of respondent (years) Dummy variable of the gender of respondent. 0=male, Dfemale 1=female Hhsize Household size (persons) Farm size Farm size (ha/hh) Plowarea Percentage of lower field in the farm size (%) Pmidarea Percentage of middle area in the farm size (%) Pirrigarea Percentage of area irrigated (%) Tborder Dummy of location. 1= border with ; 0= border with Inland Market Dummy of location. 1= inland; 0= otherwise Distance from nearest market (km) Expected effect on adoption
+ ? + + + + + -
0.67
45.81 5.56 4.04
0.50
44.55 5.36 3.78
0.60
45.28 5.47 3.93
1.45
0.76 1.29 0.56
2.19
1.16 1.07 1.80
1.77
0.93 1.15 1.09
1.39
0.00 2.84 2.09
2.69
1.88 8.75 3.36
1.94
0.80 5.37 2.63
24.71
55.45
37.83
Probit
Household size Age of respondent 0.0132 -0.0061
Tobit
1.108 -0.255
-0.1900
0.2120*** 0.0096*** 0.0045* 0.0108*** -2.1900*** -3.3900*** -0.0470* 607
-3.655
5.280*** 0.435*** 0.254*** 0.595*** -83.76*** -150.9*** -1.270 607